The 2027 Social Security COLA After Medicare: What Your Check Will Actually Go Up By

Every October, the Social Security Administration announces the next year’s cost-of-living adjustment. For 2027, the announcement is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Forecasts based on inflation data through August point to a raise of roughly 3.5% to 3.6%, the largest since 2023.

But the COLA is not the same as the raise that lands in your bank account. For most retirees, the Medicare Part B premium is taken out of the Social Security check, and it is expected to rise in 2027 too. This guide shows what your check could actually go up by, and explains the rules that protect you.

What forecasters expect

Forecaster (September 2026)	2027 COLA estimate
The Senior Citizens League	about 3.5% to 3.6%
AARP	mid-3% range

The COLA is based on the average of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September, compared with the same months a year earlier. CPI-W was up 3.5% over the 12 months to August 2026. The September figure, released the same morning as the COLA announcement, completes the calculation.

For comparison, the 2026 COLA was 2.8%.

The Medicare piece

The standard Part B premium is $202.90 a month in 2026. The Medicare Trustees projected about $209.50 for 2027, an increase of $6.60 a month. Some independent forecasts are higher, around $218.60, an increase of about $15.70. CMS usually announces the official figure in mid-November, a month after the COLA.

Your estimated 2027 raise, before and after Medicare

The table assumes a 3.5% COLA and applies it to your gross monthly benefit before Medicare is deducted.

Current gross monthly benefit	3.5% COLA	Net raise if Part B rises $6.60	Net raise if Part B rises $15.70
$1,000	$35	about $28	about $19
$1,500	$53	about $46	about $37
$2,083 (average retired worker, July 2026)	$73	about $66	about $57
$2,500	$88	about $81	about $72
$3,000	$105	about $98	about $89
$4,000	$140	about $133	about $124

These are estimates. Social Security rounds benefits down to the nearest dollar, and your exact figure will be in your COLA notice.

For a retired couple receiving the average combined benefit of about $3,208, a 3.5% COLA adds about $112 a month. If both are on Medicare and the Part B premium rises by $6.60 each, the net increase is about $99.

The hold harmless rule

A rule called the hold harmless provision protects most people from seeing their net Social Security check go down because of a Medicare increase. If the Part B premium rises by more than your COLA in dollars, your premium increase is limited so that your net payment stays at least the same.

It applies if you:

Have had Part B for the whole previous year, and

Had the premium deducted from your Social Security check in both November and January.

It does not protect people who pay IRMAA surcharges, new Medicare enrollees, or people whose premium is paid by a state Medicaid program. With a COLA around 3.5%, very few people are expected to need hold harmless protection in 2027.

Other things that can shrink your raise

Higher income, higher premiums. If your 2025 income puts you above the 2027 IRMAA thresholds, your Part B and Part D premiums will be higher.

Drug plan premiums. Part D and Medicare Advantage plan premiums change every January. If yours is deducted from your check, it affects your net amount.

Tax withholding. If you have federal tax withheld from your benefit, the withholding rises with the benefit.

Taxes on benefits. A bigger check can make a little more of your Social Security taxable if you are near the combined income thresholds.

How 2027 compares with recent years

If the forecasts are right, 2027 will bring a larger raise than the last three years but well below the peak of 2023:

2022: 5.9%

2023: 8.7%

2024: 3.2%

2025: 2.5%

2026: 2.8%

2027: about 3.5% (estimate)

A bigger COLA is not good news in itself. It reflects the fact that prices rose faster over the past year, so retirees have already been paying more for groceries, gas and other essentials before the raise arrives.

Other numbers announced on October 14

The COLA announcement also sets several other figures for 2027 that matter to people in their 50s and 60s:

The earnings test limits for people who collect benefits before full retirement age while still working. In 2026 the lower limit is $24,480.

The maximum earnings subject to Social Security tax, which affects higher earners who are still working.

The amount of earnings needed for a work credit, which matters if you are still building up your 40 credits.

The maximum SSI payment for people with very limited income and assets.

If you are still working and planning when to claim, check these alongside the COLA.

Key dates

Date	What happens
October 14, 2026	SSA announces the 2027 COLA
Mid-November 2026	CMS announces the 2027 Part B premium and IRMAA brackets
Early December 2026	COLA notices mailed; available earlier in my Social Security accounts
December 31, 2026	SSI recipients receive the first payment with the COLA
January 2027	Social Security beneficiaries receive the first payment with the COLA

Your January payment date depends on your birthday: the second, third or fourth Wednesday of the month, or the 3rd of the month for some long-time beneficiaries.

How to find your exact new amount

Opt in to online notices. Your COLA notice appears in the Message Center, usually in early December, before the paper letter arrives.

Check the deductions. The notice shows your gross benefit, the Medicare premium and your net payment.

Update your budget. Use the net amount, not the COLA percentage.

Will a 3.5% raise keep up with your costs?

It depends on what you spend money on. Over the long run, COLAs have kept pace with overall inflation, but health care, housing and Medicare premiums have risen faster. See our analysis of COLAs versus real prices since 2000. If your costs are concentrated in those areas, plan for your expenses to grow faster than your Social Security.

If you are helping a parent

The COLA notice is a good moment to sit down with a parent and review their monthly income and bills. It is also when Medicare open enrollment runs, from October 15 to December 7, so you can compare drug plans at the same time.

Frequently asked questions

When will the 2027 COLA be announced? On October 14, 2026, at about 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, when the September inflation data is released.

How much will Social Security go up in 2027? Forecasts point to roughly 3.5% to 3.6%. For the average retired worker, that is about $73 a month before Medicare.

How much will Medicare take out of my raise? If the Part B premium rises to the projected $209.50, about $6.60 a month. The official premium is usually announced in November.

When will I see the 2027 increase? In the payment you receive in January 2027. SSI recipients see it on December 31, 2026.